By Frank Stirk

FOR SOME, the world’s deepening food crisis is a “silent tsunami.”

“What we’re seeing is a tidal wave coming that we thought was way off in the distance – and is now rising faster than expected,” says Ian Robertson, communications manager for the Christian Children’s Fund of Canada. “There’s the potential for millions of lives to be lost.”

But unlike the tsunami which struck with virtually no warning in late 2004, Robertson is encouraged that “this is one of the rare occasions in recent human history where we see the catastrophe coming . . . The pain and the misery and the malnutrition that’s just setting in can be avoided and it can be mitigated – if people have the foresight to act now.”

Precipitating the crisis has been a rapid rise in food prices, within just a few months, which is pushing the world’s poorest people to the brink of starvation.

“There’s certainly enough food out there, but the poor can’t afford it,” says World Vision Canada president Dave Toycen.

“For those people who are living on $1 a day or 50 cents a day – that are already spending 50, 60, 70 percent of their income on food – their food prices have doubled,” concurs Jim Cornelius, executive director of the Canadian Foodgrains Bank, a partnership of 15 church-based agencies working to end hunger. He adds: “For countries that are importing substantial amounts of food, their import bills are going through the roof.”

In Ethiopia, tomato and potato prices have risen 300 percent since January. “To see a jump like that in something so plentiful,” says Robertson, “is an indication about what’s going on with other crops as well.”

One result has been food riots in many countries, including Haiti, Egypt, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso and Indonesia – as the poorest of the poor find their already meagre purchasing power being reduced even further.

“They’ve likely had to give up meat and other protein sources, cut back on the vegetables they eat, pull children from school, cut back on whatever health care they can afford – all just to afford simple rice and maize and other grains,” says Robertson.

One major factor behind these cost increases has been the diversion in recent years of grain supplies into bio-fuels such as ethanol, and into feed for livestock to satisfy the growing demand of literally billions of people in China and India for meat. As well, the cost of fertilizer has skyrocketed.

Drought in Australia has had a huge impact. Other factors include heightened speculation on commodities markets, and surging oil prices – which make transporting food more expensive. And now there is the added urgency of responding to the massive devastation and loss of life caused by the cyclone which struck southern Burma –  a major rice-producing area.

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“These people are primarily rice-eaters. Rice prices have doubled over the last four, five months,” says Cornelius. “So it’s going to       . . . put more pressure on the food system.”

Canadians have also not been immune from the rising cost of food. In April, Statistics Canada reported that the price of bakery products had risen nine percent in just one year. Since March 2007, the price for No. 1 grade wheat had more than doubled – the sharpest gain in 25 years – while the price of fuels surged 29.6 percent.

While this is serious for many Canadians, Cornelius insists it is not an emergency.

“It’s not a crisis for you and I. You and I are going to pay more for our groceries. And we probably should pay more for our groceries, to make sure farmers get a decent return.”

By contrast, World Vision estimates higher costs will force it to lower the number of people it can feed this year by 23 percent, or 1.5 million people.  World Vision, as do other agencies, receives its food allotment from the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) – and there is simply not enough available to meet all the needs.

“We will do our best to offset that,” says Toycen, “by raising some funds from our supporters – and I’m sure we’ll raise some money – but we just don’t have the capacity to basically take the place of a significant portion of what the World Food Program (WFP) provides.”

In April, Canada responded to the crisis by committing $230 million this year to the WFP, a boost of $50 million. “That’s really good in terms of responding to what I call the ‘band-aid’ part of this, which is how you keep people alive,” says Toycen.

One glimmer of hope was Ukraine’s recent prediction of a bumper wheat crop this year, which dropped the price of wheat by 10 percent. The much greater challenge is how to encourage developing countries to become more self-sufficient.

“We’ve got to find ways to help, particularly, smallholder farmers produce more food – and produce food in such a way it actually provides them with a livelihood, and really reduces the vulnerability of these households to these types of shocks,” says Cornelius.

“It will take us a lot longer to . . . teach these communities how to farm on their own,” says Robertson, “but the initial capital investment that was required is quite often significantly less than the final emergency dollars that would be required.”

Meanwhile, at the Iogen Corporation, Canadian researchers are developing “second-generation” ethanol made from wheat straw.

“Because we use agricultural waste,” says spokesperson Mandy Chepeka, “we don’t take anything out of the food-production cycle. . . . In the old days, it would’ve been burned off or maybe ploughed under.”

Yet as promising as such developments are, Toycen warns that the urgency of the moment places a special onus on people of faith.

“We need to go back to the deep roots of our faith,” he says, “to continue to remind, encourage and really push ourselves to deal with this issue, and to be generous and thoughtful and just in our response.”

June 2008